Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market's Supply and Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025 [[SMM Analysis]]

Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market Supply-Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025

I. Supply Side: Multiple Factors Exacerbate Shortages, Global Tin Ore Supply is Tight

In Q1 2025, global tin ore supply was impacted by multiple shocks, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters:

​​Wa State, Myanmar​​: Due to the 7.9-magnitude earthquake on March 28, the risk of landslides in mining areas surged, and transportation routes were damaged. As the world's third-largest tin producer (accounting for 12%-15% of global supply), Wa State's production resumption plans were forced to be postponed, with normal production expected to resume no earlier than the end of Q2.

​​Bisie Tin Mine, DRC​​: In early March 2025, the M23 rebel movement in eastern North Kivu province, DRC, advanced westward, occupying Kashebere, just 13 kilometers from the Bisie mine, and approaching the town of Walikale where the mine is located. Out of concern for employee safety, Alphamin Resources announced on March 13 that it would suspend mining operations at the Bisie tin mine, evacuate all non-essential personnel, and retain only maintenance and security teams.​​Impact Analysis​​: The Bisie mine is the world's third-largest tin mine, with a 2024 production of 17,300 mt, accounting for 6% of global supply. The news of the suspension directly led to an 8.8% surge in tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in a single day, and the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract once hit the daily limit up.

​​Smelters Face Pressure to Cut Production

​​Domestic Smelters​​: Due to raw material shortages and treatment charges (TCs) at historically low levels, China's refined tin production in April 2025 decreased by 0.52% MoM and 8.13% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrates and tin scrap supply chains imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate.

​​International Smelters​​: Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) suspended production due to a gas supply disruption (with a 2024 production of 16,300 mt), further affecting global refined tin supply.

II. Demand Side: Emerging Industries Drive Growth, but Traditional Sectors Show Divergent Performance

​​Strong Demand in Emerging Sectors

​​AI Computing Power and Semiconductors​​: Global semiconductor sales increased by 15% YoY in Q1, with a surge in AI server installations, directly boosting tin demand by 8%.

​​New Energy and PV​​: China's new PV installations increased by 29% YoY in Q1, with PV welding strips accounting for 14% of solder demand; the surge in the use of chips for NEVs drove demand for tin-based solders.

​​Policy Stimulus​​: China's "trade-in" policy boosted demand for tin solder in the home appliance sector, with a 15% rebound MoM.

Weak Demand in Traditional Sectors

Tinplate and Tin Chemicals: Primarily used in food packaging and PVC production, demand remained basically flat in Q1, with no significant increase.

III. Inventory and Prices: Accelerated International Destocking, Emerging Signs of Domestic Inventory Buildup

International Inventory: LME tin inventory fell from 4,400 mt at the beginning of the year to 3,050 mt (near a five-year low), with the ratio of cancelled warrants rising to 12%, reflecting tightness in the spot market.

Domestic Inventory: Social inventory gradually built up to around 10,000 mt, due to high prices suppressing end-use demand.

Price Trends: London tin prices rose by 26.3% in Q1, with the average price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract at approximately 287,000 yuan/mt, supported by supply deficits and a pullback in the US dollar index.

IV. Summary: Weak Supply and Demand with Prominent Imbalances

In Q1, the global tin market exhibited a pattern of "strong supply constraints and weak demand differentiation":

Supply Side: Triple pressures from earthquakes in Myanmar, conflicts in the DRC, and tightened policies in Indonesia expanded the global tin ore deficit to 14,000 mt.

Demand Side: Growth in emerging sectors such as AI computing power and new energy offset weakness in traditional sectors, but high prices led to cautious procurement by some downstream enterprises.

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